Is it worth trying to take up the batte axe and go after World of Warcraft for the title of most popular MMORPG, or is it doomed to fail? You bet it’s doomed to fail. Real Time Worlds became one of the latest victims of MMO death, a highly contagious and deadly disease that affects small developers who are betting too hard on the launch their its massively multiplayer online games. Hellgate: London was another fatal mistake and Tabula Rasa was quite possibly axed Richard Garriott’s career. Despite that, every developer has to give it a try.
The problem is that Blizzard does not want to share. World of Warcraft is closed to the outside world. Fresh MMO novices start playing it as their first game. Then they either get tired and stop with the genre altogether, or become serious players and will continue with WoW. Age of Conan had over 700,000 players shortly after the premiere. But now both it is down to around 100,000, which is indeed profitable, but hardly cause for celebration.
Final Fantasy XI retains many of its players, but mainly in Japan that for various reasons. It has become increasingly difficult as the competition increases. City of Heroes, City of Villains and Champions Online have all managed to capture some gamers, but unfortunately they are not that good. Age of Conan, Warhammer and lots of others have tried competing with better graphics, but a testament to how important graphics are for MMORPG gamers is Ultima Online – still alive after 15 years.
To get Warcraft-like success, you must not only have a Warcraft-like hype and Warcraft-style gameplay, you must also have a Warcraft-like durability. To kill World of Warcraft you need to surpass it in every respect . You must match the original game plus the three expansion packs, you need to get everything perfect and you have to do it without adding eight years of development and expenditure on it. With very simple means Blizzard has patched up World of Warcraft little by little until it reached the epic proportions we see today.
The best chance is perhaps to do something completely different. Guild Wars is a prime example. Another one is Eve Online. You can also drop the competition by no longer charging per month. This means that players are much more likely to take up a second line of role-playing, or perhaps try their hand at the genre to begin with. Dungeons & Dragons Online, Lord of the Rings Online, and even Everquest II is now free to play with some limitations.